Assessing Consumer Health Using Google Trends

Financial Planning |

Assessing Consumer Health Using Google Trends

March 18, 2025

Christopher Mallon

A challenge for anyone following markets and economics is the lack of real-time data. Popular indicators like the Unemployment Rate, Corporate Earnings, Consumer Price Index and Credit Card Debt are lagging indicators. They provide valuable information but reflect past economic conditions rather than current realities.

Enter Google Trends

Google Trends1 is a free database provided by Google, illustrating public interest in specific search terms over time. By analyzing search data, we gain immediate insights into what’s currently capturing public attention, offering a useful supplement to traditional economic indicators.

Unemployment Benefits (2004-Present)

Source: Google Trends

Reviewing the search term “Unemployment Benefits”, notable peaks include:

  • Fall 2008: The collapse of Lehman Brothers and onset of the Great Financial Crisis
  • Early 2020: Covid shutdowns began

Takeaway

Currently, there’s no renewed search interest for Unemployment Benefits, which is an encouraging sign regarding consumer stability.

Restaurant (2015 – Present)

Source: Google Trends

Key observations from the search term “Restaurant”:

  • You’ll see search interest decline sharply in April of 2020 during Covid lockdowns.
  • You’ll see interest peak in July of 2021, a few months after the third wave of stimulus checks ($1,400 per adult) hit people’s bank accounts.2

Takeaway

The data suggests that dining out has returned to pre-pandemic levels, retreating modestly from peak demand post stimulus. Interest falling below pre-pandemic levels could be cause for concern but the data above does not indicate that.

Ask for a Raise (2004-Present)

Source: Google Trends

Important inflection points regarding the search term “Ask for a Raise”:

  • Interest bottomed in March of 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis.
  • Interest dropped again in Spring of 2020 during Covid shutdowns.
  • Interest peaked in early 2022 when Wage Growth began spiking due to Covid stimulus3 and peaking worker confidence.

Takeaway

Current interest in asking for raises remains above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting continued confidence among workers about job security and personal economic outlook.

Final Thoughts

Together, this live search data could illustrate a consumer who remains:

  1. Confident enough to request a raise
  2. Actively searching for restaurants, indicating a willingness to spend.
  3. Not significantly concerned about unemployment benefits—a crucial signal also confirmed by recent weekly jobless claims data.4

We will continue to monitor these Google Trends closely to detect any early signs of shifts in consumer strength or confidence.

Questions or comments? Reach me at chris@pcmadvisors.com

Footnotes

  1. https://trends.google.com/trends?geo=US&hl=en-US
  2. https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus/assistance-for-american-families-and-workers/economic-impact-payments#:~:text=The%20American%20Rescue%20Plan%20Act,qualifying%20dependent%2C%20including%20adult%20dependents.

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